Leah J. Welty, PhD

Assistant Professor

Dr. Welty earned a BS (with honors) in mathematics from the University of Chicago in 1995, an MA in mathematics from Washington University in St. Louis in 1998, and a PhD in statistics from the University of Chicago in 2003. Following a postdoctoral fellowship from 2003 to 2005 in the Department of Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins Univeristy, she joined the Department of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern University as an Assistant Professor. She is also a biostatistician for the Biostatistical Consulting Center.

Research Interests

Dr. Welty's research interests include formulation of statistical models for outcomes correlated over time and space and the associated challenges in estimating these models. Her recent work on the National Morbidity Mortality and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) has focused on formulating generalized linear models to adequately capture the short term health effects of air pollution and weather while controlling for other time-varying factors. In particular, she has been investigating Bayesian methods for distributed lag models. She has also worked on formulating covariance models for random fields and estimating likelihoods for very large data sets, using algae levels in Lake Michigan collected as part of the EEGLE project.

Professional Society Membership

American Statistical Association
International Biometric Society, Eastern North American Region
Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Recent Publications

1. Washburn, J.J., Gregory, E.G., Welty, L., Teplin, L.A., McClelland, G.M., Abram, K.A., & Paskar, L. “Development of antisocial personality disorder in detained youth: the predictive value of mental disorders.” (2007) Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 75(2), 221-231.

2. Gregory, E., McClelland, G., Teplin, L., Abram, K., Welty, L., and Washburn, J. “A Longitudinal Study of the Prevalence, Development, and Persistence of HIV/Sexually Transmitted Infection Risk Behaviors in Delinquent Youth: Implications for Health Care in the Community” (2007) Pediatrics 119;e1126-e1141.
   

3. Pressman, A., Welty, L., Karniel, A.,Mussa-Ivaldi, F. “Perception of Delayed Stiffness.” (2007) International Journal of Robotic Research, 26, 1191 ­ 1203.
   

4. Welty, L. and Zeger, S. "Are the Acute Effects of PM10 on Mortality in NMMAPS the Result of Inadequate Control for Weather and Season? A Sensitivity Analysis using Flexible Distributed Lag Models.'' (2005) American Journal of Epidemiology, 162, 80-88.

5. Peng, R. and Welty, L. "The NMMAPSdata Package'' (2004) R News, 4/2, 10-14.

6. Stein, M., Chi, Z., Welty, L. "Approximating the Likelihood for Irregularly Observed Gaussian Random Fields.'' (2004) JRSS B, 66, 275-296.

7. Welty, L. J., Stein, M. L. "Modeling Phytoplankton: Covariance and Variogram Model Specification for Phytoplankton Levels in Lake Michigan.'' (2004) geoENV IV -- Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, 163 - 174.

8. Lesht, B. M., Stroud, J. R., McCormick, M. J., Fahnenstiel, G. L., Stein, M. L., Welty, L. J. and Leshkevich, G. A. "An event-driven phytoplankton bloom in southern Lake Michigan observed by satellite.'' (2002) Geophysical Research Letters, 29, 013533.

9. Welty LJ, Peng RD, Zeger SL, Dominici F. Bayesian Distributed Lag Models: Estimating Effects of Particulate Matter Air Pollution on Daily Mortality. Biometrics. 2008 Apr 15 [Epub ahead of print]
10. Elkington KS, Teplin LA, Mericle AA, Welty LJ, Romero EG, Abram KM. HIV/sexually transmitted infection risk behaviors in deliquent youth with psychiatric disorders: a longitudinal study. J Am Acacd Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 2008 Jun 26. [Epub ahead of print]

Phone: (312) 908-7914
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